Semi-finals time.

Wales, France, Australia and New Zealand are the only four of the twenty teams who began this World Cup still in the country. Everyone else has flown home and is now emptying the tumble drier, waiting for the kettle to boil and defrosting the freezer. But for the remaining four teams it is the real business end of the tournament. All four will stay until next weekend, but for two it will be the Bronze play-off, whilst for the other two it will be the pinnacle of the last four years of rugby. The World Cup Final. But I am getting ahead of myself, first we have the semi-finals.

Tomorrow morning sees the first of the semi-finals; Wales v France. For les bleus this is old hat. Only once (in 1991) have France failed to reach the semi-finals of the World Cup, and twice they went on to reach the final. They have been here before, got the t-shirt. They will be preaching calm and composure. Wales have only made it this far once, back in 1989 when they lost to The All Blacks. They have more chance against France though.

The French have looked wobbly in the tournament, but have also looked great in flashes. They will look back at last week's knocking out of England, and their record against the Welsh, 8/10 wins is pretty good going. Mind, Wales win when it matters to them; their two victories were (quite obviously) in 2005 and 2008, the two Grand Slams. They will concentrate on the big fat zero next to the word "Fiji" from earlier in the competition. And the Welsh defense has been stupendous. Chatting to a friend the other day we said Wales used to simply have to outscore their opponents - how they won the 2005 Six Nations, score more tries then the other side. Now however their defensive record speaks for itself; only 44 points conceded in the tournament so far, and over 500 completed tackles with a tackle success rate of 94%. Source.

Wales have lost a key component in Rhys Priestland. The ten has been inspirational playing in his first World Cup and his loss is a big blow. But James Hook comes into the Welsh fold to fill the gap with a head which without injury and Halfpenny would have probably played every game. Hopefully he can get stuck into Yachvili and Parra sufficiently.

The game will come down to kicking vs tries. The French should find it tricky to break down the Welsh defense so will boot it over their heads. The Welsh will see gaps in the French line and go for them. It all comes down to whether it goes through the posts or slips through fingers respectively. Once again it will be the loose forwards and inside backs who are crucial to the match. Whichever team can snaffle the ball and get it out at the right time will win the game.

That said, both teams have the pace to run around their opponents and North, Shane Williams, Halfpenny, Medard, Clerc and Palisson will have a big game. The pitch is littered with key clashes though, Warburton/Faletau v Harinordoquy/Bonnaire, Hook v Parra, Phillips v Yachvili. That last one is mouthwatering.

The winner goes to the final to play New Zealand - or Australia, but let's be realistic, I mean it's not like New Zealand will choke, they never do that at World Cups! My head says Wales, my heart says Wales, my conscience says don't be so bloody cocky.

See you on the other side.

Injuries...

They have played five weeks of rugby, and the chances of going that long without at least one player getting crocked are slim, and thus, we go into the semi-finals of the 2011 Rugby World Cup with all the sides nursing their boys through.

The biggest loss of the World Cup has to be New Zealand's number 10, Dan Carter. The fly half was set to become New Zealand's man of the hour as fatefully knocked over the final three points in the final on the 23rd - Johnny Wilkinson stylie, not that the All Blacks will want to leave it that late against Wales (or France).

I do feel sorry for him, not because he will miss out on the millions from photos and ads but because you fell this is what this guy has been building towards for a long time. He is his nation's first choice ten and, let's face it, NZ should win the World Cup. Mind, he is a cocky sod, so maybe it is just fate striking.

The other major doubt for the semis is Welsh ten (something about the position methinks) Rhys Priestland, who has, since his wobbly first few minutes against South Africa has grown to become sone of the capital men in Gatland's side. But whilst Wales would dearly love their fly half back he does not leave such a gaping hole as Carter in the All Blacks line. The Welsh have the hugely experienced Simon Jones and the diverse James Hook waiting in the wings to come in to take his place.

This would be an interesting quandary for Gatland. Does he go for the experience of Jones, a move like the Irish swapping Jonathan Sexton for Ronan O'Gara? Jones has beaten France before at ten, and whilst he doesn't have half the cutting power of Hook he provides a solid base at ten for the centres and back three to spin off from.

Hook on the other hand does provide a more cut and thrust option. He picks gaps and attacks the fringes. He will go through gaps and provide Wales a step up beyond the gain line. His kicking may not live up to Jones's but his attacking enough makes up for that.

I think I would go for Jones, Wales have centres for getting them moving, Roberts and Davies with North and Halfpenny flitting in and out and Williams on the wing to finish off the French fringes. I am willing to be proven wrong, as long as the other option is Hook blasting through tackles and feeding his runners not France decimating the links between the three quarters and the backs.

2 days!

Smells like Team Spirit

Our sports press in Britain seems at the moment to be keen to come to the conclusion that that the England rugby team have disappointed in the World Cup as a result of off pitch antics. It is true England have had 'fun' in their time in New Zealand; they went bungee jumping, went out drinking and one jumped off a boat. WOW, STEADY ON LADS! But (and I am aware I am about to come to England's defence) so what? I admit that the comments made to the female hotel worker were unacceptable, but surely the rest of the stories about the English team are our press jumping on any finger out of place. As Martin Johnson said; "Rugby players like a drink, big surprise!"

I realise that these are the professionals and that you hardly expect them to act like a town club on tour in Dublin for a fortnight when they all get lashed every night and the mantra on every players lips is "what goes on tour stays on tour", but at least let the players enjoy themselves. If we look back to England football's dreadful display at The World Cup 2010 in South Africa rumours were abound that they were all very bored sitting in their hotel like monks, surely a little socialising and some days and nights out can't hurt.

The papers seem to also have been keen to point out that right next door, in comparison to England's underachievers, sit the Welsh overachievers, who have all become teetotal for the World Cup, and have slinked under the radar. But the fact remains that whatever they say the British press are more interested and will devote more column inches to England than to Wales, not all the Welsh footsteps are dogged by reporters looking for a juicy sweep.

What it comes down to at the end of the day is that England have not played well and their decisions were incorrect. Wales have played well, and if the don't beat France on Saturday will certainly give them a run around, but more about that later. If England had won the World Cup everyone would have forgotten the bungee jump, as it is they haven't and they haven't.

I told you so.

I should like to direct your attention to my blog of the 8th Sept where I say that England will face a tough ask in a QF against France, and then that Scotland's World Cup will come down to their group game against Argentina. Hmmmmm! Just ignore the bit underneath when I say Wales will struggle. :S

Unusual results.

This weekend has been one for unusual results, and no, I am not referring to Andy Murray beating Rafa Nadal, although well done to him for that. Nor am I talking about Leeds Rhinos finishing 5th in the Super League and then winning the bloody thing (obtuse as this phenomenon is), but again well done to them for that. No, as is my wont recently, and completely since coming to blogger.com, I am referring to The Rugby World Cup.

At first glance it may not seem so odd. Ok, so England were expected to beat France and didn't, but apart from that it is fairly standard procedure, New Zealand, Australia and Wales make up the final four along side France. Had someone told you this would be the case a year ago then it probably wouldn't have been such a surprise. However, take one look at the pools and you see my point; Wales, France and Australia were all group runners-up. When Ireland beat Australia, many, including me, bemoaned the break down of the IRB's seeding system in the World Cup, designed to get the best teams through to the later rounds to make a better tournament.

However, without wanting to spout clichés, the World Cup is eight weeks long, not five, and the remaining sides have reached their peak at the right time. teams cannot peak for eight weeks or they would simply run out of juice. Ireland are a great example of this. Whilst I am in no doubt that they were comprehensively beaten by a better Welsh side and did not do themselves a disservice in their Quarter final, they obviously had their objectives wrong, focussing on a group game which could be lost against Australia, and then getting caught up in their victory. I am sure the Irish were thrilled with their victory over the Wallabies, and it could certainly prove a stumbling block in the minds of the men in yellow, I am sure they would have been happier with a loss to Australia and then a win over Wales? No? - Don't get me wrong, I was chuffed to bits when Ireland beat the Aussies, but not as chuffed as when Wales beat the Irish.

My friend Chris, also a Wales fan, posted on his Facebook wall that according to the World Cup, Tonga are better than England, because Tonga beat France who beat England. This is obviously not entirely true, and if we look at it this way the South Africa v Australia result is skew-whiff - South Africa beat Wales who beat Ireland who beat Australia. The World Cup is a combination of league and cup rugby, and generally the best team at both wins. New Zealand are (generally) not good at knock out rugby, and thus have only won the cup once despite being favourites more times than not. And so generally the best team there wins the cup, which not only involves playing good rugby, but being fit, having confidence and keeping your nerve.

It's the Quarters!

Well, as the title says; we have readched the QFs of The Rugby World Cup, and I am going to have snappy look at the credentials and possibilities of the eight left standing.

The Cup has neatly, thanks to that Ireland win over Australia, seaparated it self hemispherically, with England, Ireland, Wales and France on one side and Australia, South Africa, Argentina and the hosts New Zealand on the other. Whilst this does mean that we just get a load of games that we see year on year in the 6 Nations and Tri-nations (with the exception of Argentina, who to be fair, are joining the southern party soon). But geographically is the only way this world cup is ordered. We are fairly safe suggesting that new Zealand will reach the semifinals, they are at home and in supreme form against arguably the weakest side in the round; Argentina. Even without their star man Carter they should still make it. But aside from that it could be anyone!

South Africa face up to Australia, neither of whom had a faultless group stage. The springboks limped past Wales and took their time against Samoa, whilst Australia came second after the aforementioned loss to the Irish. On balence it should be South Africa who advance, smiply because they won their group, but it remains to be seen whether the Aussies will come roaring back or slink home with their tales between their legs. Should be a corker though.

On the other side of the draw things are just as unpredictable, if not more so. France have been poor in the World Cup and may be surprised to find themselves through, having only won two of their four pool games (they are the only side in the QFs to have lost more than once.) And with rumours of the collapse of discipline in the French camp Jonno's men could find themselves running in lots of points against a lacklustre French side. However, we all saw 2007 when dejected and battered England came to the fore, crashing their way to the final. Could France emulate that perfomance? Yes. Will they? Probably not.

England should progress. They could slip up, accidents happen. I doubt it though, the French look weak, and England will be focussing on a potential final appearance. However they will need to get through a semi against Ireland or Wales. The match between these two should be great. Ireland beat Australia in the pool, and for a lot of their squad this will be their final World Cup. I choose them to just pip the young spritely Welsh side who lost to South Africa but grew hugely in confidence with wins over Samoa, Namibia and a crushing victory over Fiji. It'll be close, but Ireland should just get over the line.

Enjoy.

Ready to bake Welsh team - just add belief, and two eggs.

The last think I do is condone smoking, it is a filthy habit, so you may think I am glad about Wales' result against the Spring Boks today; they were close, but no cigar. But cigars, (whilst just as deadly as cigarettes kids) are sophisticated, tasty and they smell nice in my old headmaster's study. I am not glad.

"Gutted" would go some way to describe how my friend Chris and I felt sitting in my living room at about 11am this morning. After going crazy with glee over the Faletau try (Faletau - a local name from the small valley just south of the Beacons called Tonga) we watched with heightened anticipation, as Wales hammered on the South African front door, flipping penalties to the side of the H and flunking drop goals, ignoring my sister's texted warnings against over-confidence. And then South Africa scored their second try and we felt foolish in front of my girl friend, who just enjoyed not knowing what is going on.

Were Wales unlucky - yes, probably. The penalty which might have gone over/might have not (although plainly did, just look, it clearly goes through you blind moron) was not referred upstairs. South Africans playing the ball on the ground who should have been pinged were not. But you make your own luck. What Wales really were, rather than unlucky, were surprised. Nobody, not even bullish Warren Gatland, really believed they would beat the Boks, and this non-belief manifested itself in plain view. We keep being told that Wales have been working hard on defence, and we look back at warm ups against England and Argentina and it certainly seems to be case. And then Hougaard went through the Welsh defence like Moses through the Red Sea. Wales had acres of talent, a horde of baying fans, fitness up to their armpits, and then bottled it. Simple as.

Wales, it seems, have made a habit in recent years of doing just this, losing by a few points to the top nations; 25-29 against South Africa in 2010, 12-19 against NZ in 2009 and 15-20 against South Africa in 2008. These results, and the current crop of Welsh whiz-kids; Faletau, Warburton, Hook, Halfpenny, North and co. suggest that one day they will break their voodoo against these big southern hemisphere giants, but it was not today. Today they lost... again.

This is not to say I was not proud to wear red this morning, in fact quite the contrary. They played the best of all the home nations in their first round matches, and whilst they were the only one to come away with a loss, will also be the most positive about their current game plan. My initial doubts about the World Cup have been all but dispelled, so long as Gatland can keep the squad awake. Add belief to the current array of Welsh goodies, real belief, not just hot air belief, and this Welsh team could go far.

Watch out Samoa, here we come.

What a start!

After day 2 of The Rugby World Cup the eight teams who have played so far have amassed a average of 34 points each. Only one match; England v Argentina, has seen under 50 points. What a start!

This exciting start can be put down to minor teams playing major teams when the major team does not fire on all cylinders. New Zealand, France and England have all failed to steamroller opposition. Granted New Zealand did in the first half and England were playing their toughest game of the pool stages, but still.

The French game may look like a walkover on paper. 47-21 they beat Japan, scoring six trys in the process. But John Kirwan's Japanese team (nicknamed The Cherry Blossoms) earned themselves a new fan who was sitting in a lounge in his pyjamas in Kent. Their spirit and doggedness really impressed and the lapse in energy at the end was entirely forgiven, during which France ran in three.

Similarly The All Blacks, who, buoyed by an entirely NZ crowd stormed the first half, and then went to sleep for the first 20 minutes of the second half. And it was delightful to watch the Tongans hammering on the door, even if all I kept thinking of was Nick from The Apprentice's anecdote about the King of Tonga's hat shop.

And this is what, in my opinion, is making the World Cup so good. Some people are disappointed that New Zealand didn't dismantle Tonga and that Wilkinson didn't kick Argentina into that numbing helplessness that he used to be so keen on. But for me, it is keeping the competition alive. I can't wait to see Japan play again, and no doubt they can't wait to play again, similarly Tonga. I do not mean to patronise the qualifiers, but to praise them, they are making the competition what it is; great!

A word, simply as I haven't mentioned them, on the Scots who held their nerve at the death against Romania and somehow found a win. Next time though just don't play at 2 in the morning! And also to Fiji and Namibia, neither of whom I am looking forward to watching face the boys in red.

Enjoy your Rugby.

Have you set the alarm? What time are you at work? Not for work, for Rugby!

The cameras are focused, the wall-charts are up, the beer is in the fridge - or should that be the hot chocolate is bubbling? This time tomorrow the Rugby World Cup will have begun, presumably with victory to the hosts; New Zealand (no offence meant to Tonga - their opponents). I won't be there, but what can be said for certainty is that I will be watching on TV. But such is the time difference of our antipodean brothers on the other side of the world, I will be getting up to sport.

Sports fans around the world will all understand this phenomenon. In 2000 we all arose from our beds to see who had won medals at the Sydney Olympics. I remember getting up to watch England beat Denmark 3-0 in the round of 16 of the 2002 Japan & South Korea World Cup. And how many of us have disturbed partners, families and housemates with shouts and cheers when Chris Tremlett took Michael Beer's wicket in the second innings of the 5th test at The SCG to win the 2010/11 Ashes? I know I did. Of course, I can only speak for British viewers, I suppose staying up to watch The FA Cup final, or Grand Prix would be exactly the same.

Watching over-night sport is just one of those special things. You feel brilliant watching or listening to sport when there logically shouldn't be sport. I even get the same feeling staying up for election night. It just feels like you have made the extra effort to experience the sport, it makes the event so much more special. This feeling is by far at its best when you are in pajamas, under a duvet, with a cup of tea, it is dark and cold outside (possibly raining) and you sit in watching your heroes bowling, kicking, running, rowing or whatever.

Tomorrow is not bad at all, for the saddos (me) who will watch the opening ceremony the start is 8.30am. But for those of you wanting to see Argentina V Romania the start is 4.30am, for New Zealand V Canada it's 3.30am and for Scotland V Romania it is 2am. Probably best to just stay up! 'Experts' (in other words my friends on TMS) say that constant movement, cold drinks, small snacks and power naps are best for the stayers among you.

For tomorrow's game it is hard to look past New Zealand, who have quality in places most of us don't even know exist. They have to be favourites for the competition, although recent losses to the Aussies and South Africa show they are not infallible. If I had to stick my neck out I'd go for 32-9.

As for home nations; England stand the best chance, in a relatively easy group, although a potential 2nd round against Les Bleus could be tricky. The Scot's campaign will come down to the 25th Sept against Argentina, unless they can nick an unlikely victory over England. Ireland should escape their group, but South Africa probably lie in wait in the 2nd round, although I certainly hope not. My beloved Wales. I can see them not getting through the group stage, slipping up against South Sea Islanders Fiji and Samoa, and if they do get through, Australia in the 2nd round! Eek.

Enjoy your rugby.