Wales, France, Australia and New Zealand are the only four of the twenty teams who began this World Cup still in the country. Everyone else has flown home and is now emptying the tumble drier, waiting for the kettle to boil and defrosting the freezer. But for the remaining four teams it is the real business end of the tournament. All four will stay until next weekend, but for two it will be the Bronze play-off, whilst for the other two it will be the pinnacle of the last four years of rugby. The World Cup Final. But I am getting ahead of myself, first we have the semi-finals.
Tomorrow morning sees the first of the semi-finals; Wales v France. For les bleus this is old hat. Only once (in 1991) have France failed to reach the semi-finals of the World Cup, and twice they went on to reach the final. They have been here before, got the t-shirt. They will be preaching calm and composure. Wales have only made it this far once, back in 1989 when they lost to The All Blacks. They have more chance against France though.
The French have looked wobbly in the tournament, but have also looked great in flashes. They will look back at last week's knocking out of England, and their record against the Welsh, 8/10 wins is pretty good going. Mind, Wales win when it matters to them; their two victories were (quite obviously) in 2005 and 2008, the two Grand Slams. They will concentrate on the big fat zero next to the word "Fiji" from earlier in the competition. And the Welsh defense has been stupendous. Chatting to a friend the other day we said Wales used to simply have to outscore their opponents - how they won the 2005 Six Nations, score more tries then the other side. Now however their defensive record speaks for itself; only 44 points conceded in the tournament so far, and over 500 completed tackles with a tackle success rate of 94%. Source.
Wales have lost a key component in Rhys Priestland. The ten has been inspirational playing in his first World Cup and his loss is a big blow. But James Hook comes into the Welsh fold to fill the gap with a head which without injury and Halfpenny would have probably played every game. Hopefully he can get stuck into Yachvili and Parra sufficiently.
The game will come down to kicking vs tries. The French should find it tricky to break down the Welsh defense so will boot it over their heads. The Welsh will see gaps in the French line and go for them. It all comes down to whether it goes through the posts or slips through fingers respectively. Once again it will be the loose forwards and inside backs who are crucial to the match. Whichever team can snaffle the ball and get it out at the right time will win the game.
That said, both teams have the pace to run around their opponents and North, Shane Williams, Halfpenny, Medard, Clerc and Palisson will have a big game. The pitch is littered with key clashes though, Warburton/Faletau v Harinordoquy/Bonnaire, Hook v Parra, Phillips v Yachvili. That last one is mouthwatering.
The winner goes to the final to play New Zealand - or Australia, but let's be realistic, I mean it's not like New Zealand will choke, they never do that at World Cups! My head says Wales, my heart says Wales, my conscience says don't be so bloody cocky.
See you on the other side.
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