Euro 2012 - Semi Finals

It is Semi Finals time and as per usual England are out and the final four are made up of Western European giants. I am not going to dwell on the past, because frankly that bit could be paraphrased into “England were solid but predictable and lost on penalties again”, and look with anticipation at the Semi-finals to come.

Wednesday sees the Iberian battle, and let’s hope it is more Boer War than Cold War. By which I do not mean more deaths but actually something happening. This one has the potential to become a bit of a dreary affair, especially if Spain score first and then hold onto that lead, as they did against France. However, Portugal are a more potent attacking force than France, spearheaded by Ronaldo, who, after a slow start, has come to life. He will be chomping at the bit to gain bragging rights over his Real chums and Barca rivals, much as he was against England in Euro2004.

The main man in the match though will not be Ronaldo, or Silva, or Alonso, but Raul Meireles. Playing deep in the Portugal midfield, he has the potential to snuff out the passes and runs of the six strong Spanish midfield. If he fails, there is little that Pepe and co can do to stop the Spanish steam-roller. It may be that the Spanish choose to play a front man – Torres has been their main option in that role – in which case it will be up to the centre-backs to stay tight and bring him down.

Portugal’s best option is to invite Spain onto them and hot while they aren’t concentrating on defence. Pique and Ramos like to get forward, and if Nani, Ronaldo and Almeida can pour themselves onto the full backs then we could see Portugal nick the odd goal. Spain should win. They have quality coming out of their armpits and then when that gets the blast of Portuguese anti-persperant  they have a sweaty back too. Sorry. The game will be dangerous and could get dirty, there is no love lost between the neighbours, so expect a few cards to be put up. I am going to go for Spain to win by two, but I could be well out.

The other Semi final looks to be the more straightforward one. Germany should dispatch Italy with ease. The Italians lacked finesse infront of goal against England and the same impotency again will see Germany through at a canter. If Ballotelli and De Rossi can find their shooting boots then perhaps the Germans will have some work to do, but frankly I don’t see it bothering them. Schweinsteiger or Ozil, whoever Loew chooses, will be more than a match for Pirlo, and without their main man dictating play the Italians could fall to bits. The Italian team has had two fewer days to recover from 120 minutes of match than the Germans have had from 90, and a lot of their first choice players didn’t even face that. Germany to win then, although Italy will put men behind the ball, so perhaps only by one or two, but Italy shouldn’t worry them too much.

It may seem that I am being unfair towards the Italians but it seems every way of winning a game has been negated recently by the Germans. You can’t pass around them, as Holland tried, you can’t counter attack them, Greece tried, you can’t frustrate them, Portugal tried. You just have to be better than them, and Italy aren’t.

Enjoy the games.

Euro 2012 - Quarter finals

I thought I would have a quick look at the Quarter Finals before they begin in an hour or so, and consider what may and may not occur.

Firstly; tonight’s little party. The QF which was not meant to be. Tonight Portugal take on the Czech Republic in a game which should have been Russia v Holland, and without being mean to the Portuguese or the Czechs, I know which I would prefer to see. Nevertheless we should not spurn these two lucky bods the chance to have a right royal ding dong and see a super-surprise package into the final four. I think I have to go for Portugal; Pepe has looked great in their back-line, not scared to get forward when he is needed but a firm statue of a CB in the toughest times. Going forward Ronaldo seems to have started firing, grabbing both goals against the Dutch and he should have got a hattrick, but for a string of last ditch saves. If he can link up with Nani, Postiga and Veloso successfully, the Portuguese have themselves a very handy attacking force. This is not to count out the Czechs who have done very well themselves especially considering that they lost their first game 4-1! Pilar and Jiracek have been their backbone in this tournament and they do have the quality to take Portugal down, but it is their defence which worries me. Granted Gebre Selassie and Kadlec have done OK so far, but realistically any defence which shakes under Arshavin, Dzagoev and co. will surely crumble when Ronaldo, Nani and that lot roll into town. Portugal to win comfortably, but perhaps only by one or two.

Moving on to Friday; there really is only one winner. Germany will tear Greece to shreads. They looked pretty ordinary against Denmark in their final group game but that will only make Die deutsche mannshcaft more dangerous. Expect scything attacks, massive defenders and many goals. Gomez will continue in his rich vein of form, Ozil should find something else against such weak opposition, they should run riot. The Greeks will point to their stars, Karagounis, Salpangidis and Samaras, but realistically they stand little chance. It is a shame, because I do enjoy an underdog winner, but this is one too many. Germany to steamroller Greece, by lots.

Onto Saturday, and here is where the closer QFs are, at the weekend. France v Spain. This could be a humdinger. France are out to prove to Europe they are not a damp squib after coming through their group with 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss. If they are to make any waves in this competition, which they will really hope to do, they will have to defeat the current European and World Champions, and I think they can. (note the word “can” rather than the word “will”) If they can get the likes of Ribery and Nasri into interesting places and have Benzema and Giroud on the end of things then they can snatch a goal or two. Then it all comes down to holding onto a lead, something which they have only done, albeit successfully, for 37 minutes in the whole competition so far. The game will really come down to the Spanish. If Torres, Silva, Iniesta and Xavi fail to coherently fire then the French have a chance. Mind, if the aforementioned lot fail to coherently fire then the Spanish can turn to Fabregas, Alonso, Mata and Llorente, not to mention having Jesus on their side; Navas that is. It is this strength in depth that makes the Spanish side such a threat, not only do they have a bristling front line, but their reserve trenches are packed with bayonets too. Spain to win, just.

Then the big one, unless you are Czech, Portuguese, Greek, German, Spanish or, God save you, French. The Italians are on the horizon for Roy Hodgson’s men, and, again sorry if you’re French, provide England’s toughest opposition in the competition so far. Pirlo has been imperious, knocking many a tricksome (not a word, shame) tricky (urgh) cross into boxes for Balotelli and Di Natale to get onto the end of. The English however have proved themselves very difficult to break down. Terry and Lescott have provided many a frustration for oppositions and aside from a monster shot from Nasri and an error-ridden ten minutes against the Swedish have looked pretty resolute, even Terry’s clearance from inside the goal against Ukraine shows a certain desire. England’s problem has been retaining the ball once it reaches Parker, Gerrard, Milner and Young. Ball retention has been shocking, and you can bet your bottom dollar that if England keep the ball as appallingly as they have been the Italians will cut them to ribbons on Sunday. If they can keep the ball, and put flick ons through to Rooney and Welbeck then we could see something interesting, although is it me or has Rooney lost a yard of pace? It’ll be close, but I think Italy are the better side, and sadly will steal a march on England who’ll concede silly goals. 2-1, England to score first.

So that’s the QFs. Enjoy them, and here’s to hoping my next entry will also include the names Rooney, Welbeck, Hart and Gerrard. 

Euro 2012, Round 3

Firstly muted apologies that this is coming out a bit late, I know Group A is already sorted and done, but I had to go and hold Olympic medals so frankly, sod it. I’m going to have a quick look at the groups as they are now, ie after Group A is done.

From the makers of Denmark 1 - Netherlands 0 and England coming from 2-1 to beat Sweden 3-2, we have yet another surprise. Russia are out. The massive bonus of surprises like Group A’s result is that they come in two parts. Not only are Russia out of the competition but their place Greece find themselves as one of the best eight teams in Europe. Of course, that is not precisely how it works, but if you think that England don’t do tournament football, it seems Greece really do. Mind you, it does seem that they will find the Germans in their way, and surely that is one surprise too far. Isn’t it?

But, wait, we must spare a thought for the other teams in the group. The Czech Rep have come roaring back like Lazarus after their 4-1 drubbing by Russia, it takes a lot of belief to lose your first game by such a hefty score line and still go through. They will probably be the only group winners to go into the QFs with a negative goal difference too; -1. A word too for Poland who, despite being hosts, have fallen at the first hurdle without winning a game. I really hope the tournament does not suffer from their absence as hosts, although hunger for the competition always wanes when the home team drops out, so it inevitably will.

Just a few interesting (this is where my geek comes out and my girlfriend decides we need to discuss the meaning of the word “interesting”) titbits on Group A. 14 goals were scored in the process of seeing Russia collapse and Greece into the last eighteen, seven were 1^st half goals and seven 2^nd half. Poland’s Lewandowski scored the first and Czech Rep’s Jiracek scored the last. Joint top scorers were Jiracek and Dzagoev. And only 4 points divided first from last in the group and had goal difference been preferred to head to head Russia would be in the QFs not Greece.

That’s enough of Group A, now onto speculation. Calculators out.

Germany will go through with a win or draw as group winners. Lose and it gets complicated. Portugal will progress with a win. Denmark can go through if they win and Portugal lose or draw to Holland. Holland have to beat Portugal by two clear goals and hope Germany beat Portugal. If Germany lose to Denmark by two goals they can drop to third if Portugal beat Holland. Confused? Yup me too. Think of it this way; Germany are pretty much through, barring minor anti-German miracles. Portugal win against the lacklustre Holland and they go through. Germany self-destruct and let Denmark snatch a few goals and they could get into the last eight hat. Holland are praying but God might be wearing Orange.

If I had to put my finger on it at this stage I would go for Germany to beat Denmark and Holland to beat Portugal, but the Portugese to still go through.

Group C. Let’s get something cleared up, even if they put fifteen unanswered goals past Italy, which they won’t, they still board the plane to Dublin. The winner of Spain v Croatia (Spain) will go through. The loser will still go through if The Republic of Ireland can force a win or draw against Italy. Italy have to beat the Irish and hope that Croatia and Italy have a winner or a 0-0 draw. If the draw is 1-1 then Italy must equal Croatia’s 3-1 win over Italy. In that case, rather cruelly, Italy would go through because UEFA ranks them higher than Croatia. A 2-2 draw between Croatia and Italy would see Italy go home. Got it? No, idiot’s guide time:

Spain are almost there, and only a freak result against Croatia gets rid of them. Croatia will probably have to win because the Italians look likely to beat The Republic of Ireland. The way I see it going is for Italy to beat Ireland and Spain beat Croatia, thus sending Spain and Italy through with the Spanish topping the group. Hope I am wrong though.

Group D. France will start the final day as favourites to top the group. They must beat the Swedes, who are already out, and retain their one goal goal difference over England. They will still go through with a draw and can win the group so long as England v Ukraine finishes as a draw. If England win or draw they are also through, although if Sweden beat France either result will put England top of the group. England can lose and still go through so long as Sweden beat France by two more goals than England lose by. Topping the group is important here as it probably means avoiding a QF against reigning champions Spain. Ukraine can also progress if they win. However, for the co-hosts a draw or a loss is insufficient. Sweden are already out and England have to hope they have some pride left to play for against France.

Can England do it? Yes they can, Ukraine looked impotent against the French who carved them open with two swift movements. Granted the rain delay in the game will have disrupted them, but France slowed and slowed them until heaped with pressure and frustrated by French possession they collapsed. If top man Adriy Shevchenko does not recover from his knee issue then their main strike force is crippled and although England can cope without Walcott, Ukraine without Shevchenko will be flaccid. Nevertheless I am certain England will make long work of them and probably scrape through with a draw, whilst the French will “ride a mile and their way will be paved with Swedish faces”.

Walcott looks unlikely to feature against Sweden but just think how exciting a force of Young, Walcott, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Welbeck and Rooney could be. I know Carroll did a job against Sweden but Heskey did a job for England and there weren’t many people fancied him much. I would stick with Welbeck upfront, he terrorised the French centre backs and then bagged himself a goal with a superbly taken finish against Sweden. Then Rooney, who has been straining upon the start for two games. Hodgson should unleash him, and challenge him to show us what we have been missing, admittedly, at Rooney’s own fault. Going forward then I would have Gerrard infront of the back four, dictating play with Milner, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Young off him. Then Welbeck upfront with Rooney linking midfield and striker, pulling the Ukraine defence in all kinds of directions.

England have never won an opening match at a European Championship, never beaten Sweden in a competitive match and have never beaten a host nation at a championships. I hope we can make it 2 from 3.

Euro 2012, Matchday 1

Round One of games is over then. Some players have impressed, some not so much. I am going to have a look at the things that impressed and the stuff which perhaps didn't

I received a little tip off for my fantasy team from a secret source that a young Russian attacking midfielder called Alan Dzagoev (21) would light the tournament up. Sure enough two goals and 84 minutes played I am 13 points better off because of him. The little Russian was a massive part of so much of what Russia did well in their opener against the Czech Rep and capped it off with some terrific goals, and should possibly have had a hattrick. Arshavin had a great game too but for me Dzagoev was the main man and really impressed me.

Dzagoev is all well and good but Russia were expected to win that game, admittedly not necessarily by three goals, but still. Denmark however, turned on their tournament with a huge win against some people’s favourites for the whole thing – The Dutch. It is easy to throw plaudits in the direction of Krohn-Delhi who nicked the all important goal through Stekelenburg’s legs, but save a moment for keeper Stephan Andersen and the Danish defence who held the door shut whilst RVP, Sneijder, Robben and Huntelaar hammered away (albeit with some certainly incorrect decisions against them.)

I also want to take a second for the defeated Irish. They were the 2^nd best team at the match and Croatia deserved to win. However, this afternoon France were better than England and England got a result. Ireland were beaten by an unsighted keeper early goal, a goal from a offside player and an own goal. They face a really tough task going for the QFs now with games against Spain and Italy.

Also congratulations to Group D’s golden oldies. Shevchenko and Ibrahimovic both netted in their Ukraine v Sweden match. There is a lot to be said for international pride, something which in the past England have been missing, which today brought Chelsea reject Shevchenko to hit the back if the net with two impeccable headed attempts.

It would be false of me to go on about the first round without a mention of England, or do they prefer Chelsea II? They defended resolutely, and had Steven Gerrard not dived infront of Samir Nasri, Joe Hart may have kept France to nil and won the game for England. Very good stuff, France are a top team and one of the favourites to win this thing, and to think England stifled them and frustrated them through 90 minutes is excellent. From what I saw of Sweden and Ukraine, which admittedly was only the first half, England can certainly get through to the quarters.

And as a fun trivia fact; Joleon Lescott has a higher scoring record in Euro 2012 than Van Persie, Huntelaar, Ronaldo, Benzema, Torres, Klose and Ozil put together. Wonder what odds you’d have got for that five days ago?!

So, any surprises in the next round? If Denmark can put something together against Portugal they can all but see themselves through, as a massive shock against the odds. It’s certainly a possibility. Hosts Ukraine might also ride their victory wave and give France a game and a half. The big one though I think might see Croatia turn Italy over. 2-0. You read it here first.  

Also, if anyone likes to smile, check out my other blog clivethetortoise.blogspot.co.uk as little Clive, who is a tortoise, goes on a tour of all the competing nations at Euro 2012. Here's a taster.

Portugese Clive

Euro 2012 Preview

Once again Europe readies itself for football, what my mum calls wall to wall. For the first weeks I agree, there is a lot of football, and I shall strive to sum it all up in a way which will make you smile unless (a) the English lose or (b) the French win; you may want to avoid the entry on June 12^th!

This year the hosts are Poland and Ukraine. Neither of these teams had to qualify, and as such have not played competitive football since either of them failed to qualify for South Africa 2010. This lack of quality opposition means that sometimes host countries can falter early on. Many pundits play upon this point hard and fast, but I reckon that the potential of playing at home gives more than it takes. We need only look recently to see this; France were world champions in 1998, and then the rules stated that champions were allowed straight in so in 2002 they entered the group stage with no competitive football in two years and went straight out without scoring a goal. South Korea the same year were in the same boat qualifying-wise (hosts) and got to the Semi-finals (although some of the referees’ decisions along the way were, to put it kindly, a bit odd.

So, here I am going to have a quick look through the groups and try to pick out the potentials. Then there is the Big Predicition.

Group A contains Poland, Greece, Czech Rep and Russia. Many people have labelled Group B the Group of Death, but I think A is harder to predict. Russia should win it, after that it’s anyone’s guess.The Czechs had an awesome team in the 1990s but have dwindled somewhat in the new millennium. What they do have in their hands is a top keeper, Champion’s League winner Cech. He could have a massive influence on the team’s fortunes. Poland and Greece will both be up for trying to topple the Czechs though. Poland as hosts have a huge advantage, but the Greeks know how to win this thing. It should go Russia, Czech Rep, Poland, Greece. But, it could be the complete opposite. If Poland win their first the fans might rally behind the team and they can be tricky to stop, and Greece showed what a smaller nation can do in 2004, but really? Nah.

Group B is the most exciting group in the competition, if not the most unpredictable. Holland and Germany will see themselves as huge favourites and so do I. I do feel a bit for Portugal because they are a good team, but here, unless they can pull of a major upset, or if one of the others implodes, they are going home early. Denmark are massive outsiders. If they go through we will lose a very major European footballing power. The group will come down to the middle matchday when what I feel are nations 1 & 2 play each other, Germany and Holland. A potential final in the 2^nd game? You can bet your ass it is, by which I mean your donkey, don’t bet your arse, that would be silly, and frankly perverted.     

Group C seems another forgone conclusion. But try saying that in Zagreb. Italy, Spain, Croatia and Rep of Ireland. Spain are world and European champs. They are bidding to become the first European nation to win three consecutive competitions, and they stand a bloody good chance, even without Puyol who looks set to sit it out. Italy are decent, and tricky to beat, and should go through too. Again that Spain v Italy game on Sunday seems to be the one to watch there. Croatia should get better loser. The Republic have a tough week, and I don’t stand with those who say they will have a good time whatever. I think that is really patronising. They will be difficult to knock over and do not want to go home having scored zero goals and conceded lots. They will make a good showing of themselves. However, it I think it will end Spain, Italy, Croatia, Ireland. Sorry but the Irish will need the luck of… themselves to do anything.

Group D is very open. Except that France are good and the rest are average. But the French collapse more often than they perform in tournaments. I think of them as a higly tuned tensile machine, if it goes to plan they are the best, if one thing goes wrong then the whole thing falls to bits faster than you can say du camle. Sweden are that ‘tricky to beat’ team, and might cause an upset, but I more see the upset coming from… Ukraine. The co-hosts are never a simple proposition, they find something from somewhere. Shevchenko could rise up; the Messiah of Ukraine and put them into the QFs. Or maybe, just maybe, not.

England are in an odd situation. A coach who was managing West Brom two months ago, no Rooney for two games, no Ferdinand, no Beckham, miles away from the stadia they play in. It seems like they are a different team to the one we are used to in tournament football. It looks likely they will defend. Do not expect any fireworks here. England will sit and wait and then launch the long ball. They have been hit by the loss of Cahill and Barry in that department but will still try to defend. If it all goes to plan they could do a Chelsea and defend their way through. It is tough to call.

Here goes, the big prediction.

Group A: 1^st Russia, 2^nd Poland, 3^rd Czech Rep, 4^th Greece. (I know, Poland, what?!)

Group B: 1^st Germany, 2^nd Holland, 3^rd Portugal, 4^th Denmark.

Group C: 1^st Spain, 2^nd Italy, 3^rd Croatia, 4^th Republic of Ireland (Sorry Irish)

Group D: 1^st France, 2^nd England, 3^rd Ukraine, 4^th Sweden.

QFs:

Russia v Holland – Holland

Poland v Germany – Germany

Spain v England – Spain

Italy v France – France

SFs:

Holland v Spain – Holland

Germany v France – Germany

F:

Holland v Germany – Germany.

There you have it – Germany will win EURO2012 and I have shown my working. You can have that. Mind you, since when did one of these things go to plan? Denmark and Greece will tell you not to count chickens. Listen to their sage advice. Then use the sage to make a nice stuffing for the aforementioned chicken. Yum.