Euro 2012, Round 3

Firstly muted apologies that this is coming out a bit late, I know Group A is already sorted and done, but I had to go and hold Olympic medals so frankly, sod it. I’m going to have a quick look at the groups as they are now, ie after Group A is done.

From the makers of Denmark 1 - Netherlands 0 and England coming from 2-1 to beat Sweden 3-2, we have yet another surprise. Russia are out. The massive bonus of surprises like Group A’s result is that they come in two parts. Not only are Russia out of the competition but their place Greece find themselves as one of the best eight teams in Europe. Of course, that is not precisely how it works, but if you think that England don’t do tournament football, it seems Greece really do. Mind you, it does seem that they will find the Germans in their way, and surely that is one surprise too far. Isn’t it?

But, wait, we must spare a thought for the other teams in the group. The Czech Rep have come roaring back like Lazarus after their 4-1 drubbing by Russia, it takes a lot of belief to lose your first game by such a hefty score line and still go through. They will probably be the only group winners to go into the QFs with a negative goal difference too; -1. A word too for Poland who, despite being hosts, have fallen at the first hurdle without winning a game. I really hope the tournament does not suffer from their absence as hosts, although hunger for the competition always wanes when the home team drops out, so it inevitably will.

Just a few interesting (this is where my geek comes out and my girlfriend decides we need to discuss the meaning of the word “interesting”) titbits on Group A. 14 goals were scored in the process of seeing Russia collapse and Greece into the last eighteen, seven were 1^st half goals and seven 2^nd half. Poland’s Lewandowski scored the first and Czech Rep’s Jiracek scored the last. Joint top scorers were Jiracek and Dzagoev. And only 4 points divided first from last in the group and had goal difference been preferred to head to head Russia would be in the QFs not Greece.

That’s enough of Group A, now onto speculation. Calculators out.

Germany will go through with a win or draw as group winners. Lose and it gets complicated. Portugal will progress with a win. Denmark can go through if they win and Portugal lose or draw to Holland. Holland have to beat Portugal by two clear goals and hope Germany beat Portugal. If Germany lose to Denmark by two goals they can drop to third if Portugal beat Holland. Confused? Yup me too. Think of it this way; Germany are pretty much through, barring minor anti-German miracles. Portugal win against the lacklustre Holland and they go through. Germany self-destruct and let Denmark snatch a few goals and they could get into the last eight hat. Holland are praying but God might be wearing Orange.

If I had to put my finger on it at this stage I would go for Germany to beat Denmark and Holland to beat Portugal, but the Portugese to still go through.

Group C. Let’s get something cleared up, even if they put fifteen unanswered goals past Italy, which they won’t, they still board the plane to Dublin. The winner of Spain v Croatia (Spain) will go through. The loser will still go through if The Republic of Ireland can force a win or draw against Italy. Italy have to beat the Irish and hope that Croatia and Italy have a winner or a 0-0 draw. If the draw is 1-1 then Italy must equal Croatia’s 3-1 win over Italy. In that case, rather cruelly, Italy would go through because UEFA ranks them higher than Croatia. A 2-2 draw between Croatia and Italy would see Italy go home. Got it? No, idiot’s guide time:

Spain are almost there, and only a freak result against Croatia gets rid of them. Croatia will probably have to win because the Italians look likely to beat The Republic of Ireland. The way I see it going is for Italy to beat Ireland and Spain beat Croatia, thus sending Spain and Italy through with the Spanish topping the group. Hope I am wrong though.

Group D. France will start the final day as favourites to top the group. They must beat the Swedes, who are already out, and retain their one goal goal difference over England. They will still go through with a draw and can win the group so long as England v Ukraine finishes as a draw. If England win or draw they are also through, although if Sweden beat France either result will put England top of the group. England can lose and still go through so long as Sweden beat France by two more goals than England lose by. Topping the group is important here as it probably means avoiding a QF against reigning champions Spain. Ukraine can also progress if they win. However, for the co-hosts a draw or a loss is insufficient. Sweden are already out and England have to hope they have some pride left to play for against France.

Can England do it? Yes they can, Ukraine looked impotent against the French who carved them open with two swift movements. Granted the rain delay in the game will have disrupted them, but France slowed and slowed them until heaped with pressure and frustrated by French possession they collapsed. If top man Adriy Shevchenko does not recover from his knee issue then their main strike force is crippled and although England can cope without Walcott, Ukraine without Shevchenko will be flaccid. Nevertheless I am certain England will make long work of them and probably scrape through with a draw, whilst the French will “ride a mile and their way will be paved with Swedish faces”.

Walcott looks unlikely to feature against Sweden but just think how exciting a force of Young, Walcott, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Welbeck and Rooney could be. I know Carroll did a job against Sweden but Heskey did a job for England and there weren’t many people fancied him much. I would stick with Welbeck upfront, he terrorised the French centre backs and then bagged himself a goal with a superbly taken finish against Sweden. Then Rooney, who has been straining upon the start for two games. Hodgson should unleash him, and challenge him to show us what we have been missing, admittedly, at Rooney’s own fault. Going forward then I would have Gerrard infront of the back four, dictating play with Milner, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Young off him. Then Welbeck upfront with Rooney linking midfield and striker, pulling the Ukraine defence in all kinds of directions.

England have never won an opening match at a European Championship, never beaten Sweden in a competitive match and have never beaten a host nation at a championships. I hope we can make it 2 from 3.