Euro 2012 Preview

Once again Europe readies itself for football, what my mum calls wall to wall. For the first weeks I agree, there is a lot of football, and I shall strive to sum it all up in a way which will make you smile unless (a) the English lose or (b) the French win; you may want to avoid the entry on June 12^th!

This year the hosts are Poland and Ukraine. Neither of these teams had to qualify, and as such have not played competitive football since either of them failed to qualify for South Africa 2010. This lack of quality opposition means that sometimes host countries can falter early on. Many pundits play upon this point hard and fast, but I reckon that the potential of playing at home gives more than it takes. We need only look recently to see this; France were world champions in 1998, and then the rules stated that champions were allowed straight in so in 2002 they entered the group stage with no competitive football in two years and went straight out without scoring a goal. South Korea the same year were in the same boat qualifying-wise (hosts) and got to the Semi-finals (although some of the referees’ decisions along the way were, to put it kindly, a bit odd.

So, here I am going to have a quick look through the groups and try to pick out the potentials. Then there is the Big Predicition.

Group A contains Poland, Greece, Czech Rep and Russia. Many people have labelled Group B the Group of Death, but I think A is harder to predict. Russia should win it, after that it’s anyone’s guess.The Czechs had an awesome team in the 1990s but have dwindled somewhat in the new millennium. What they do have in their hands is a top keeper, Champion’s League winner Cech. He could have a massive influence on the team’s fortunes. Poland and Greece will both be up for trying to topple the Czechs though. Poland as hosts have a huge advantage, but the Greeks know how to win this thing. It should go Russia, Czech Rep, Poland, Greece. But, it could be the complete opposite. If Poland win their first the fans might rally behind the team and they can be tricky to stop, and Greece showed what a smaller nation can do in 2004, but really? Nah.

Group B is the most exciting group in the competition, if not the most unpredictable. Holland and Germany will see themselves as huge favourites and so do I. I do feel a bit for Portugal because they are a good team, but here, unless they can pull of a major upset, or if one of the others implodes, they are going home early. Denmark are massive outsiders. If they go through we will lose a very major European footballing power. The group will come down to the middle matchday when what I feel are nations 1 & 2 play each other, Germany and Holland. A potential final in the 2^nd game? You can bet your ass it is, by which I mean your donkey, don’t bet your arse, that would be silly, and frankly perverted.     

Group C seems another forgone conclusion. But try saying that in Zagreb. Italy, Spain, Croatia and Rep of Ireland. Spain are world and European champs. They are bidding to become the first European nation to win three consecutive competitions, and they stand a bloody good chance, even without Puyol who looks set to sit it out. Italy are decent, and tricky to beat, and should go through too. Again that Spain v Italy game on Sunday seems to be the one to watch there. Croatia should get better loser. The Republic have a tough week, and I don’t stand with those who say they will have a good time whatever. I think that is really patronising. They will be difficult to knock over and do not want to go home having scored zero goals and conceded lots. They will make a good showing of themselves. However, it I think it will end Spain, Italy, Croatia, Ireland. Sorry but the Irish will need the luck of… themselves to do anything.

Group D is very open. Except that France are good and the rest are average. But the French collapse more often than they perform in tournaments. I think of them as a higly tuned tensile machine, if it goes to plan they are the best, if one thing goes wrong then the whole thing falls to bits faster than you can say du camle. Sweden are that ‘tricky to beat’ team, and might cause an upset, but I more see the upset coming from… Ukraine. The co-hosts are never a simple proposition, they find something from somewhere. Shevchenko could rise up; the Messiah of Ukraine and put them into the QFs. Or maybe, just maybe, not.

England are in an odd situation. A coach who was managing West Brom two months ago, no Rooney for two games, no Ferdinand, no Beckham, miles away from the stadia they play in. It seems like they are a different team to the one we are used to in tournament football. It looks likely they will defend. Do not expect any fireworks here. England will sit and wait and then launch the long ball. They have been hit by the loss of Cahill and Barry in that department but will still try to defend. If it all goes to plan they could do a Chelsea and defend their way through. It is tough to call.

Here goes, the big prediction.

Group A: 1^st Russia, 2^nd Poland, 3^rd Czech Rep, 4^th Greece. (I know, Poland, what?!)

Group B: 1^st Germany, 2^nd Holland, 3^rd Portugal, 4^th Denmark.

Group C: 1^st Spain, 2^nd Italy, 3^rd Croatia, 4^th Republic of Ireland (Sorry Irish)

Group D: 1^st France, 2^nd England, 3^rd Ukraine, 4^th Sweden.

QFs:

Russia v Holland – Holland

Poland v Germany – Germany

Spain v England – Spain

Italy v France – France

SFs:

Holland v Spain – Holland

Germany v France – Germany

F:

Holland v Germany – Germany.

There you have it – Germany will win EURO2012 and I have shown my working. You can have that. Mind you, since when did one of these things go to plan? Denmark and Greece will tell you not to count chickens. Listen to their sage advice. Then use the sage to make a nice stuffing for the aforementioned chicken. Yum.